On January 13, 2019, CEEP-BIT successfully hosted the lunch of Forecasting & Prospects Research Reports on Energy Economy (2019) in Beijing, during which a series of seven reports are released to the public, including Forecasting and Prospects of China’s Energy Economy under the New Trade Situation, International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Forecasting in 2019, Current Status and Prospects of Rural Residents’ Energy Consumption in China, Assessment and Prospects of Health Effects of Pollution in High Energy Consumption Industry, Hotspots and Prospects of Public Attention to Smog in China, Analysis and Prospects of the Development of China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry, and Forecasting and Prospects of Photovoltaic and Wind Power Industries in 2019. This series of reports are the academic results on specific issues achieved by the research team led by Professor Wei Yiming of BIT, based on domestic and international changes of new trend in energy economics and climate policies. Nine successive reports have been released since 2011, capturing a wide range of social attention.
Bao Liying, deputy secretary of the Party Committee of Beijing Institute of Technology, gave a welcome speech. Professor Wei Yiming introduced the background of the research report on energy economics forecasting and outlook, and shared his research achievements in the green transformation of China's energy-intensive sectors. Professor Wang Zhaohua, Professor Tang Junjun, Professor Liang Qiaomei, and Associate Professor Yu Biying presided over the relevant sections of the report launch.
Forecasting and Prospects of China’s Energy Economy under the New Trade Situation notes: In general, the trade friction between China and the US has little impact on China's macro-economy, but China should pay special care to key energy-related industries, take various measures to deal with its potential adverse effects, and seize the new trade situation to change China's energy import and export pattern.
International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Forecasting in 2019 notes that: In 2019, the international crude oil price will continue to fluctuate, with little potential to increase, and it will maintain a low price with great volatility. The average price of Brent and WTI crude oil is expected to reach 57-72 and 51-66 US dollars/barrel respectively.
Current Status and Prospects of Rural Residents’ Energy Consumption in China notes: In rural China, traditional solid energy sources such as firewood and coal are still widely used in cooking and heating. Promote the transformation of rural energy should go hand in hand with the construction, operation and maintenance of clean energy supply facilities as well as the construction of service systems. Raising the awareness of clean energy should go hand in hand with elevating income of rural residents.
Assessment and Prospects of Health Effects of Pollution in High Energy Consumption Industry notes: The health effects of air pollution in China will become increasingly prominent. The health effects of pollution in energy-intensive industries should not be ignored. It is necessary to comprehensively utilize the health coordination effects of energy conservation and emission reduction, and adopt flexible means to stimulate its green transformation.
Hotspots and Prospects of Public Attention to Smog in China notes: The public is becoming increasingly rational about smog, and health protection and scientific governance are the hotspots of the future. The government has gradually changed from administrative instructions to market-based means to deal with smog, and smog governance has become more scientific and humanized. The focus on smog of citizens has changed from simple protection to deep health, and the future health industry will usher in a new opportunity for development.
Analysis and Prospects of the Development of China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry notes: In 2020, China's new energy vehicle ownership will reach 5.8527 million, exceeding the previous planning target; and the tightening subsidy policy has very limited impact on market sales. Restrictions on the fuel–powered vehicles to alleviate traffic congestion is an effective driving force for new energy vehicle sales. The sales model of separating vehicle and battery will become the mainstream marketing method in the future.
Forecasting and Prospects of Photovoltaic and Wind Power Industries in 2019 notes: both photovoltaics and wind power industry will still face the challenges of overcapacity and policy adjustment in 2019. However, fortunately enough, Chinese enterprises are striving to continuously improve through technological innovation and enhance enterprise competitiveness. Some enterprises in the field of monocrystalline silicon wafers, PERC monocrystalline cells and wind power in China have completed the transition from manufacturing to creation.
Dai Yande, previous director of the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, Ding Zhimin, deputy director of the Legal and System Reform Department of the National Energy Administration, Zhao Huaiyong, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, Shi Dan, researcher of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, He Ping, Researcher of China Industrial Energy Conservation Program of US Energy Foundation, Chang Yuwen, director of Institute of Oil and Gas Development Strategic Planning, China Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute, all gave their comments on the reports and related energy issues.
More than 20 media representatives including the People's Network, Beijing TV and more than 100 experts and scholars attended the launch.
