Press of Forecasting and Prospects Research Report on Energy Economy (2016) was held successfully on 6th of Jan 2016 in Beijing. The report was released by the Center for Energy and Environment Policy Research and written by Prof. Yi-Ming Wei’s research team, basing on series of in-deep study, the reports includes The Forecast for Energy Economy during the “13th Five-Year Plan” and by 2030, Energy Forecasting Errors: Historical Experiences and Implications, Crude Oil Forecasting in 2016, Outlook and Prospect of Petrochemical Industry in 2016, Evaluation Index for Investment Risk of Oil and Gas Countries, Analysis of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction of New Energy Vehicles in Beijing during the “13th Five-Year Plan”, Industrial Carbon Abatement Cost Saving Effect on National Emission Trading System during the “13th Five-Year Plan”.
The writer of The Forecast for Energy Economy during the “13th Five-Year Plan” and by 2030 associate professor Yu Haoforecasts the Energy Economy in middle and long term. The results shows that in the baseline scenario, the carbon emission will peak under the more strictly policy measurement.
The writer of Energy Forecasting Errors: Historical Experiences and Implications professor Hua Liao thinks that the total forecast results of energy demand in developed countries are relevantly precise while being underestimated in undeveloped countries such as China and India.
The writer of Crude Oil Forecasting in 2016, Outlook and Prospect of Petrochemical Industry in 2016 doctor Lu-Tao Zhaothinks that the price variance between Brent and WIT will narrow. The variation of crude oil will maintain in a low level and be larger and more frequently which leading to a more risky crude oil market.
The writer of Outlook and Prospect of Petrochemical Industry in 2016 associate professor Xin Lv thinks that low oil prices will have negative effect on oil producing industry and the sale volume of refined oil product and storage and transportation & sales industry may increase slightly.
The writer of Evaluation Index for Investment Risk of Oil and Gas Countries doctor Hong Cao thinks that investment risk of foreign oil production is relatively lower in countries like Ecuador, Peru while higher in countries like Iran and Venezuela. Under the influence of domestic political and economic situation abnormal fluctuations, the risk index increase by 56%,42% and 268% in countries like Russia, Brazil, venezuela and Iran.
The writer of Analysis of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction of New Energy Vehicles in Beijing during the “13th Five-Year Plan” professor Bao-Jun Tang thinks that the energy consumption of Taxi, Bus and Sanitation Vehicle will up to 15.5 million kWh and the carbon emission will up to 394 thousand tons. Comparing the period of “12th Five-Year Plan”, the effect of new energy vehicles’ energy conservation and emission reduction will be more significant.
The writer of Industrial Carbon Abatement Cost Saving Effect on National Emission Trading System during the “13th Five-Year Plan” associate professor Ke Wang thinks that the extra carbon emission reduction in industry sector will reach to 2.8~3.2 million tons, if national emission trading system come into service in 2017.
